🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.